Daily News 15 11 2024

Important News of the Day

Zaman Önem Ülke Olay Beklenen Önceki Açıklanan
00:15 United States (USD) FOMC Member Williams Speaks
00:30 United States (USD) Fed's Balance Sheet 6,994B 6,967B
00:30 New Zealand (NZD) Business NZ PMI (Oct) 46.9 45.8
02:50 Japan (JPY) GDP (YoY) (Q3) 0.7% 2.2% 0.9%
02:50 Japan (JPY) GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
02:50 Japan (JPY) GDP Price Index (YoY) (Q3) 2.8% 3.1% 2.5%
05:00 China (CNY) Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Oct) 3.5% 3.4% 3.4%
05:00 China (CNY) Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct) 5.5% 5.4% 5.3%
05:00 China (CNY) Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Oct) 5.8% 5.8%
05:00 China (CNY) Chinese Unemployment Rate (Oct) 5.1% 5.1% 5.0%
05:00 China (CNY) NBS Press Conference
07:30 Japan (JPY) Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) 1.4% 1.4% 1.6%
10:00 United Kingdom (GBP) Business Investment (QoQ) (Q3) 0.6% 1.4% 1.2%
10:00 United Kingdom (GBP) GDP (YoY) (Q3) 0.1% 0.7% 1.0%
10:00 United Kingdom (GBP) GDP (QoQ) (Q3) 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
10:00 United Kingdom (GBP) GDP (MoM) (Sep) 0.2% 0.2% -0.1%
10:00 United Kingdom (GBP) Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) 0.1% 0.5% -0.5%
10:00 United Kingdom (GBP) Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Sep) 0.0% 1.3% -1.0%
10:00 United Kingdom (GBP) Monthly GDP 3M/3M Change (Sep) 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
10:00 United Kingdom (GBP) Trade Balance (Sep) -15.70B -15.21B -16.32B
10:00 United Kingdom (GBP) Trade Balance Non-EU (Sep) -4.85B -5.31B
10:30 Switzerland (CHF) PPI (MoM) (Oct) 0.1% -0.1%
12:30 United Kingdom (GBP) Labour Productivity (Q2) 0.1%
13:00 Euro Zone (EUR) EU Economic Forecasts
13:00 Euro Zone (EUR) Eurogroup Meetings
14:30 Euro Zone (EUR) ECB McCaul Speaks
16:00 United Kingdom (GBP) NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker (Oct) 0.2%
16:30 United States (USD) Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 0.3% 0.5%
16:30 United States (USD) Export Price Index (MoM) (Oct) -0.1% -0.7%
16:30 United States (USD) Import Price Index (MoM) (Oct) -0.1% -0.4%
16:30 United States (USD) NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Nov) -0.30 -11.90
16:30 United States (USD) Retail Control (MoM) (Oct) 0.7%
16:30 United States (USD) Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) 0.3% 0.4%
16:30 Canada (CAD) Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Sep) 1.0% -0.6%
17:15 United States (USD) Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct) -0.3% -0.3%
17:15 United States (USD) Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct) -0.64%
18:00 United States (USD) Business Inventories (MoM) (Sep) 0.2% 0.3%
18:00 Euro Zone (EUR) ECB's Lane Speaks
18:00 United States (USD) Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Sep) 0.3% 0.5%
21:00 United States (USD) Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) 2.5% 2.5%
21:00 United States (USD) U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 479
21:00 United States (USD) U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 585
21:15 United States (USD) FOMC Member Williams Speaks
23:30 United Kingdom (GBP) CFTC GBP speculative net positions 45.1K
23:30 United States (USD) CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions 196.1K
23:30 United States (USD) CFTC Gold speculative net positions 255.3K
23:30 United States (USD) CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions 16.1K
23:30 United States (USD) CFTC Gold speculative net positions 255.3K 1
23:30 United States (USD) CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions 113.4K
23:30 Australia (AUD) CFTC AUD speculative net positions 31.0K
23:30 Japan (JPY) CFTC JPY speculative net positions -44.2K
23:30 Euro Zone (EUR) CFTC EUR speculative net positions -21.7K

Lenovo Plans to Open More Manufacturing Facilities Beyond China

image

Lenovo's Chairman Yang Yuanqing stated that they plan to further diversify their supply chain and open more production facilities outside of China in response to the current global geopolitical uncertainties. Most of Lenovo's facilities, the world's largest computer manufacturer, are located in China. Yang mentioned to Reuters that while it is still too early to predict the policies of the new U.S. administration, Lenovo's more diversified production base and sourcing strategies, alongside balanced regional revenue streams, give them an advantage over competitors in mitigating such risks. He also indicated plans to open a facility in Saudi Arabia following a significant investment agreement with the Saudi Public Investment Fund.

In the quarter ending September 30, Lenovo reported revenue of $17.9 billion, exceeding analyst expectations of $16.0 billion. Net profit reached $359 million, compared to analyst forecasts of $331.7 million. Lenovo's global PC shipments rose 3% in the September quarter to 16.5 million units, maintaining a 24% market share. According to IDC, global PC shipments across the industry fell by 2.4% year over year.

U.S. Regulators Plan to Investigate Microsoft’s Cloud Business

image

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) in the United States is reportedly preparing to initiate an investigation into Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) regarding anti-competitive practices in its cloud computing business. According to individuals with direct knowledge of the matter, the FTC is examining allegations that Microsoft has abused its market power in productivity software by imposing punitive licensing conditions to prevent customers from transferring their data from the Azure cloud service to competing platforms. Among the tactics being scrutinized are reportedly significant increases in subscription fees for departures, the imposition of high exit fees, and making Office 365 products incompatible with rival clouds. These individuals stated that the FTC has not yet officially requested any documents or other information from Microsoft as part of the investigation. A move to challenge Microsoft's cloud business would represent another offensive by FTC Chair Lina Khan against Big Tech, focusing on aggressively curtailing the monopolistic powers of companies like Meta and Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).

Fed Chair Powell: "There’s No Urgency for Rate Cuts"

image

In a speech assessing the economic situation, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that current conditions do not create an urgent situation for interest rate cuts. Speaking to business leaders in Dallas, Powell expressed that the strong structure of the U.S. economy allows them to maintain a patient stance regarding future interest rate decisions. He emphasized that the overall performance of the U.S. economy is superior compared to other major global economies.

Powell noted that the employment gains in October were insufficient due to storms in the Southeast and worker strikes. Despite these challenges, he indicated that the labor market is generally resilient, and unemployment rates are still low compared to historical norms. He pointed out that unemployment rates have shown a stable trend in recent months and reiterated the strength of the overall economic structure.

Addressing inflation, Powell remarked that progress in inflation is broad-based and ongoing. Fed officials expect inflation to gradually approach the target rate of 2%. It was noted that inflation stood at 2.3% in October, with a rise in consumer and producer prices, while reaching 2.8% excluding food and energy costs. Powell stated that there might be fluctuations on the path to achieving the inflation target, but the Fed is firmly focused on this goal.

Following the 50 basis point interest rate cut in September, the recent reduction of the benchmark interest rate by an additional 25 basis points to the range of 4.5%-4.75% is seen as part of the aim to maintain economic stability while controlling inflation. Powell indicated that they aim to reach a neutral interest rate level that neither promotes nor limits economic growth, but he refrained from providing a specific timeline for when this level would be achieved.

Uncertainty regarding post-term roles at the Fed and assessments toward 2025 remain. There is ongoing uncertainty about whether Powell will remain on the Fed's Board of Governors after his term ends in May 2026. At an event in Dallas, he expressed his commitment to serve as Fed Chair until the end of his term but did not make any statements regarding his potential continuation as a board member afterward.

With the prospect of the first Fed Chair staying on the board after their term, Karen Ward from JPMorgan (JPM) Asset Management indicated that the Fed might pause interest rate cuts throughout 2025. Due to uncertainties surrounding Trump’s policies, it seems plausible that the Fed may adopt a wait-and-see approach to assess the economic effects. Ward suggested that by observing the economic implications of policies, the Fed might maintain the current situation throughout the year. In light of these assessments, it is predicted that the political and economic dynamics of 2025 will shape the Fed’s decisions.

MARKET OVERVIEW - Chinese Data Supports the View of Accelerating Growth

image

Goldman Sachs economists reported that China's October activity data indicates a gradual improvement in growth momentum, particularly in consumption. Retail sales exceeded market expectations, while industrial production and fixed asset investment data were slightly missed. They also noted that unemployment rates decreased in October compared to September, according to a survey. Goldman Sachs stated, "This supports the view that GDP growth could accelerate from the third to the fourth quarter." However, they reminded that, taking into account the potential impact of U.S. tariffs under the Trump administration, they have reduced their GDP growth forecast for China in 2025 from 4.7% to 4.5%. Goldman Sachs expects continued policy easing in 2025, emphasizing that demand-side measures, particularly in the fiscal and real estate sectors, are crucial for the effectiveness of stimulus initiatives.

Forex News: Stock Market Opening Survey Results Are In

image

In a survey conducted by analysts, the median forecast for the BIST100 Index opening gap value is 22.17 points, while the average forecast is 23.08 points. The highest expectation in the survey was 70.0 points, and the lowest expectation was -30.0 points. Today, 44 institutional analysts participated in the Foreks News BIST 100 index opening survey; 39 analysts predicted a positive opening, while 5 analysts predicted a negative opening. NOTE: Investment experts interested in participating in the daily BIST100 surveys organized by Foreks News can send an application email to neslihan.koroglu@forinvest.com.