Foreks - China's industrial production growth slowed in October, and while retail sales appeared to be slightly more vibrant, there were few signs that the demand issues in the real estate sector were easing. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, industrial production in October rose by 3% compared to the previous year, a slowdown from September's 5.4% growth rate. Economists had expected a 5.6% increase in industrial production.

However, retail sales, an indicator of consumption, increased by 4.8% in October, surpassing the 3.2% growth seen in September. This marked the fastest growth in retail sales since February. The growth in retail sales was supported by a week-long holiday and the annual Singles' Day shopping festival, which started ten days earlier than last year on October 14. Data provider Syntun estimated that sales on major e-commerce platforms surged by 26.6% during the Singles' Day event, reaching 1.44 trillion yuan.

Investment in fixed assets increased by 3.4%, compared to an expectation of a 3.5% increase, in the first ten months of 2024. In the January-September period, it had grown by 3.4%.

Conversely, real estate investment declined by 10.3% year-on-year from January to October, deepening the 10.1% decrease seen in the first nine months of the year. In terms of area, real estate sales fell by 15.8% compared to the previous year in the January-October period, a slower decline than the 17.1% drop recorded between January and September.

Forex - Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England (BoE), warned that Brexit has harmed the UK economy and called on ministers to "rebuild relationships" with the EU.

Bailey stated that the commitment to open trade is vital to boost weak investments in the UK and restore productivity growth, alongside the planned release of capital from businesses and pension funds as suggested by Finance Minister Rachel Reeves.

Speaking at the Mansion House dinner, Andrew Bailey remarked that Brexit has created "a weight on the economy," particularly highlighting its impact on the UK's goods trade. "This underscores why we need to be alert to opportunities for rebuilding relationships while respecting the decision of the British public," he stated.

Bailey spoke within the context of Donald Trump's threat to impose tariffs on all foreign goods sold to the US. Identifying himself as "essentially an old-fashioned free trader," Bailey expressed his opposition to such an approach. He emphasized, "What I mean is that in a time when it's crucial to be vigilant against threats to economic security, let's remember the importance of openness."

Forex - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted its largest daily cash injection in nearly five years through reverse repos in open market operations today. The PBOC announced that it executed a 7-day reverse repo worth 981 billion yuan to balance factors such as maturing medium-term lending facilities (MLF) and tax payments. Today, 1.45 trillion yuan worth of MLF loans will mature.

Forex - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the ongoing economic growth, solid labor market, and inflation remaining above the 2% target indicate that there is no rush for the Fed to lower interest rates. Powell emphasized that he and his fellow policymakers believe inflation is still on a "sustainable path toward 2%" that will allow the U.S. central bank to shift its monetary policy to a "more neutral setting" over time, without aiming to slow down the economy.

Powell noted that, at present, there are no warning signs indicating that the economy requires the Fed to accelerate interest rate cuts. On the contrary, he mentioned that if "data allows us to go slightly slower, that seems like a smart thing to do. The economy is not signaling that we need to rush to lower rates. The strength we see in the economy allows us to approach our decisions carefully."

Fed officials and investors are assessing how the ongoing economic strength of the U.S. and the uncertainties surrounding the economic agenda of elected President Donald Trump—particularly regarding tax cuts, tariffs, and immigration—might affect economic growth and inflation.

During the question-and-answer session, Powell mentioned that Fed staff might start considering the potential impacts of Trump’s tariffs and other campaign proposals, but understanding these effects would take time and would not become clear until new laws or executive orders are approved or issued. "The answer is not clear until we see actual policies. I don't want to speculate. There are still months until a new administration takes over," he stated, adding that the current economic conditions are different from when Trump began his first term eight years ago, which was characterized by lower inflation, slower growth, and decreased productivity. Powell noted, for instance, that the recent increase in immigration has created "a larger economy" during a time of post-pandemic labor shortages. More generally, following last week’s election, which may have shifted voters’ perceptions of the country’s economic issues, Powell concluded that the current situation is actually "quite good."

Powell largely skirted questions about how new tariffs on imports or operating the economy with fewer workers might change the inflation trajectory that the central bank is trying to lower. "We can do the arithmetic. If there are fewer workers, less gets done," Powell stated, adding, "this puts me into political topics I want to stay as far away from as possible."