Nvidia “Balance Sheet Review
NVDA gained around 7% in after-hours trading and passed the $1k level… It gained a market value of nearly $160 billion in after-hours trading. Intel’s current market value is $133.7 billion. NVDA’s market value is larger than the sum of the five largest chip companies in the SOX index after NVDA. NVDA Market Cap > TSM + Broadcom + ASML + AMD +Qualcomm While believing in the future of artificial intelligence, it is an important detail that NVDA has created a similar intra-sector market value comparison in the chip sector to the one used for Tesla in electric vehicles. Another detail: Stating that it will introduce new introductions/products like Blackwell chips every year. I understand that new iPhone models come out every year. After all, it is “consumer electronics”. Will technology giants build new data centers every year? Or will we need “a small data center in our living room” in the future? 40% of NVDA’s Q1 data center revenues are made up of Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Google. Will all of these customers continue to think “ever more parameters” & “ever more powerful chips” in their AI models forever? We know from Meta that no… We know that Microsoft will also buy AMD chips… NVDA is predicting a turnover of $28 billion with a +/- 2% movement for the current quarter. In one word: Awesome… It is bigger than the sum of the five names that come after it in the SOX index (Semiconductor Index) in terms of market value. So what is the situation in terms of turnover and net profit? There doesn’t seem to be much difference in the total turnover of the last 12 months J There is a difference in the net profit side… A different perspective on how important growth and maintaining profit margins are in the current pricing… NVDA CEO says that he will put “new” products on the table every year because he knows this. Do you remember Tesla’s “new model” costing 20k USD? J We continue with the financials from Model 3 and Model Y, thinking that it will come… The stock will be split 10 to 1 in June. Reason? If we say the dividend increase that institutional investors want (which it did yesterday), is this division for small investors to have easier access to the stock? Does the CEO want another round of increase from $100 to $1k? Well... The profit figure that the market predicts for the 2026 fiscal year and the P/E multiplier are exactly the sector median... So what kind of estimates does the market make for the 2026 fiscal year? $148 billion turnover, $112 billion gross profit, $97 billion operating profit and $81 billion net profit. In order to call the stock “fair value” compared to the 2026 fiscal year, the turnover needs to increase more than 2x and the net profit margin needs to continue above 50%. Result: Yesterday's NVDA balance sheet and today's Asia is positive, Europe is positive and US futures are positive. The "data center" business line affecting the stock price... In the financials announced yesterday, data center revenues are 9x that of gaming... I guess a data center for every home will become a reality!!